22 Expert Picks
The Texas Rangers will be up against a left-handed starter for the second consecutive game. The Angels have a 4-10 record in game two of a series, including 1-5 after a win. The Rangers' third (Lowe) and fourth (Garcia) batters in the previous game went 0-for-8. Texas has seven right-handed hitters in their lineup, and Patrick Sandoval has historically allowed a higher batting average against right-handed hitters (.271) than left-handed hitters (.185). Texas is ranked sixth (+9) in outs above average while the Angles are ranked 29th (-14). I like the Rangers in this spot!
Seattle and starting pitcher Luis Castillo will try and cool off the Baltimore Orioles bats. In yesterday’s series opener the Orioles scored nine runs, and won easily 9-2. Look for Castillo to fare better as he allowed just two hits to the Orioles in last year’s start. Grab the Mariners to cash as the slight road underdogs.
Luka Doncic is getting stronger as this series goes on. He is also getting help outside of Kyrie Irving from PJ Washington (19 ppg in this series) and Derrick Jones (11 ppg in this series). Mavs roll at home.
Similar play to Fri night - Nats are fading and Gore coming off a start where the manager rode him pretty hard against a lineup that is red hot and knows him pretty well. Phils 17-8 at home and 8 of their last 10 wins are by 2 runs or more. Nats lineup lagging (I bet James Wood gets the call to MLB by Memorial Day). Nats have .594 OPS in May (worst in MLB) with a .201/.293/.301 slashline. I don't love Sanchez on the mound but figure he can battle against this group.
We have been backing Royals with Lugo on bump all season, as the AL can't really seem to figure him out. He gets a faltering A's lineup here and while I think Ross Stripling is generally underrated, Sally got him twice in 7 ABs and A's pen might be running on fumes. Royals are 6-2 in Lugo's 8 starts in April/May, only losses were to teams leading division at the time (BAL and MIL) and all 6 wins by 2 runs or more. KC has +12 RD in his last 4 starts. A's in 2-11 rut, losing 9 of those games by 2+ runs. Royals are stout at home
The Jays are not good at home (9-10) or vs above .500 teams (13-18) and they are on the brink of another in-season manager firing. Only so many meetings you can call when you never win as many games as you think you will. Lot of pressure on a group that has always cracked under pressure. Rays finding ways to win again (10 of 14), Eflin will battle and Gausman is sporting an ERA around 5. I don't buy the Jays bats. Riding Rays ML again. I smell a sweep
This signing has been the best in ball so far, and the Cubs need a win today and their bullpen stinks. I see them riding Imanaga through 7 today if at all possible and he's done it in two of his last 3 starts. Twice recently he has gone over this mark despite not throwing even 90 pitches and he's been stretched out to over 100 once this month as well. Pirates lineup has had its share of issues.
The Pirates are suddenly a little hot, but have been riding their top three starters and this ain't one of them. I have all kinds of issues with the Cubbies pen, but this starter has been as close to perfect as you get and it might take just one run over 5 innings to get us home. Some of the Cubs big bats have done damage in limited sample vs Bailey Falter. Again, if trends hold we don't need much here
This is the lowest total for a Nuggets game all season, and it's not close. The two games in this series that went under 205 were both total blowouts in which starters were pulled way early and Denver barely scored. Not sure that will be the case in a Game 7. MIN playoff games average 209. Nugs avg 207.5. Nugs at home avg 203. Both teams have truly elite scorers. Nuggets won't shoot that poorly again at home with a repeat at stake. Scored 112+ in 3 straight vs that tough MIN defense. Only 2 of 11 DEN playoffs games are under this and 2 of their last 27 overall. Only 2 of 10 MIN playoff games under this and 2 of last 15 overall
Jack Flaherty has flashed brilliance at times this year, but he's consistently racked up strikeouts no matter the matchup, including punching out seven against the team with the lowest strikeout rate in the league in his last start. That should be enough to expect six Ks as a baseline even against teams like the D-Backs that don't strike out a ton, though I'll note that their lineup is much worse overall against righties than lefties. I think this number needs to be 6.5 for a pitcher with an 11.7 K/9 rate on the season.
Yu Darvish hasn't allowed a run in three straight starts, all against solid to good offenses. Bryce Elder has been uneven in his four starts, and I don't think it's controversial to say the Padres have the pitching edge in this matchup. They may also have the hitting edge, as their .748 OPS against righties tops the Braves' .721 mark. That's enough for me to back the Padres as the F5 moneyline underdog.
Miles Mikolas led the majors in hits allowed last year, and his hit rate is even worse in nine starts, leading to an ugly 6.19 ERA. Lefties have a 141 OPS+ against him this year, and Rafael Devers has extreme splits favoring righty matchups this year. He's also been locked in at the plate with homers in three straight and 2+ bases in nine of his 15 games in May. There's a reason this prop, which is typically heavily tilted toward the Under, has balanced odds on each side, and I think it's worth backing the Over here.
Braxton Garrett was knocked around in his debut, but I was encouraged to see him strike out eight batters in 5.1 innings while issuing just two walks and throwing 80 pitches. That pitch count coming out of rehab gives him a great shot to get into the sixth inning again here, especially as the Mets offense has performed worse against southpaws and has scored more than two runs in the first six innings of just one of their last eight games. I think we're getting a discount on a good pitcher in a good matchup based off one start that wasn't as bad as his ERA says.
Gonna go back to pillaging with wifey out of town, but I saw this number and am like huh? The books clearly don't trust Royals starter Seth Lugo much, and I have to say I can't believe he has been this good at 6-1 with a 1.66 ERA. But until Seth proves us wrong and as long as he's not arrested entering the ballpark, which apparently we can't rule out now, I feel pretty good about this.
The Cubs have lost four of their last five, but I love this spot for them. Both offenses do much better against lefties than righties, but the Cubs can counter those Pittsburgh splits by sending one of MLB's best pitchers to the mound in Shoto Imanaga, who has surrendered just five earned runs in eight starts. He also missed the Pirates series last week, while the Cubs saw Bailey Falter last Sunday, which could lead to more offensive success here. I think the Cubs are an interesting play at -0.5 on the run line as well, but I'm going for the bigger odds with this pick.